I know I said I wasn’t going to talk about hostess anymore, but I’ve been considering something and I need to throw this out there for debate. I know it seems like Hostess has really and truly closed its doors forever, and indeed this may be all there is to it, but what if this is all part of an ingenious plan?
Mind you, I don’t think Hostess is going to emerge from this. It does look like the company is finished. There are no lifelines left, no venture capital that is willing to step in and revitalize the company.
No, I think the company is really closing. However, what if the closing is part of a secret plan to drive up prices for sale of the brand? Think about it, they announce that they are closing forever. No more twinkies. No more ho hos. No more sno balls. Instantly, people panic. Stores are overwhelmed by people trying to get their hands on the last of the Hostess. Remaining product goes for insane prices on ebay.
Doesn’t that sound like it would stimulate the price people would be willing to pay to take over the brand? It sure seems like it would.
After all, we all know scarcity economics. Don’t think people will want to buy your product? What if you tell them they can’t? Suddenly, they might want to.
The Hostess panic could be no different. Faced with no twinkies ever again, people have to have twinkies. What they are willing to do for them makes headlines. If nothing else, people can see the rush for the remaining product. As a result, more companies might be willing to buy the brand off of the failed Hostess. The price they might be willing to pay might be higher than it would have been before the panic. The panic just demonstrates the public’s affinity for the product in the most concrete and visible way.
Now, I don’t know that this is what Hostess is doing. I’m just saying that it might be. There is a significant chance that Hostess products might be gone forever. But…there is also a chance that this might all have been a business game and the brand might be out under a new company in a matter of weeks.
All we have to do is have a little patience…and be willing to adapt to Little Debbie if things turn out for the worst.